Since over 50% of foetuses survive when born at 24 weeks, the current Dissertation

Since over 50% of foetuses survive when born at 24 weeks, the current law on abortion should be amended to reflect this - Dissertation Example a common law country itself has adopted in most of the states. When other EU countries have only 12 weeks and less, U.K. also can also follow suit. The Abortion Act 1967 is the oldest Abortion law in the world now and therefore needs to be amended for less than 24 weeks. Table of contents Chapter No Particulars †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ Page no Abstract 1 Chapter 1 Introduction 3 1.2 Problem statement 6 1.3 Aim 6 1.4 Objectives 6 1.5 Dissertation structure and Methodology 6 1.6 Conclusion 7 Chapter 2 Literature review 7 2.1 Defense of necessity 7 2.2 Rights of unborn child 10 2.3 Ethics of abortion 12 2.4 General law applicable to abortion 13 2.5 Prolife movement 15 2.6 Prochoice movement 15 2.7 U.S. law for 20 weeks or lesser 16 2.8 British M.P. Nadine Dorries’ 20 reasons for 20 weeks 17 2.9 24 reasons for 24 weeks by Laurie Penny 17 2.10 Conclusion 16 Chapter 4 Data Findings, discussion and conclusion 19 Bibliography 22 Chapter 1 Introduction The big question is whether abortion is â€Å"killing of foetus or removal of a piece of tissue from a woman’s body?† It is argued that Abortion Act 1967 is medicalisation of deviance. According to Friedson, power accorded to doctors to have control over abortion has led to problematic segments of social behaviour. Thus, the judge decides what legality is and who is guilty, the priest, what is holy and who is profane and the doctors, what is normal and who is sick. In order to overcome the problematic area of abortion, medical profession have managed to influence the decision on when abortion is criminal and when it is therapeutic. The influence by the medical men has been on two levels. one, the political level where they supported legislatio n on abortion from 1803 to 1861 that helped establishment of medical profession’s status and in 1967 in furtherance of professional interests with the passing of Abortions Act 1967. The second level is the practical level in which the medical man exerts his extensive autonomy to decide on an abortion if it could be therapeutic 1 Section 58 of the Offenses Against the Person Act 1861 provides â€Å"every woman being with child, who, with intent to procure her miscarriage, shall unlawfully administer to herself any poison or noxious thing or shall unlawfully use any instrument or other means whatsoever with the like intent, and whosoever, with intent to procure miscarriage of any woman, whether she be or not with child, shall unlawfully administer to her or cause to be taken by her any poison or other noxious thing, or shall unlawfully use any instrument or other means whatsoever with the like intent , shall be guilty of felony and being convicted thereof shall be liable at th e discretion of the court or kept in penal servitude for life or for any term not less than three years or to be imprisoned for any term not exceeding three years with or without hard labour and with or without solitary confinement†2 Though it may appear from what has been stated above that abortion in the U.K. is technically under the control of medical profession, liberal approach is the norm in that it is now â€Å"abortion on demand† given the fact that U.K. is the highest among European countries with reported cases of abortion 90 percent of which is conducted in the first trimester (12 weeks). The U.K. law has been more permissive than other countries

Lu Xun by Zhou Shuren Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

Lu Xun by Zhou Shuren - Essay Example Even Mao Zedong, a well-known and highly respected Chinese political leader, claimed that he himself is a lifelong aficionado of the works of Lu Xun. Although Lu Xun was compassionate to the ideals of the Communist, surprisingly, he never joined the Chinese Communist Party. In several works of Lu Xun, he contrasted the hypocrisy of upper-class scholars and elites, with the suffering of the lower-class people. But the uncomplicated interpretation of his stories often neglected their uncertainty and metaphysical levels. His works that deeply influenced modern Chinese fiction are Na Han (Call to Arms) of 1923, Pang Huang (Wandering) of 1926, and Gu shi xin bian (Old Tales Retold) of 1935. His essays are often satirical in his societal remarks and with his mastery of the vernacular language; his expertise with tone, which does not always project an easy thought, make his works even harder to translate. He produced harsh condemnation of China's social problems, particularly in his analysis of the ideal Chinese national. Lu Xun had all the qualifications of a good polemicist; simply means a writer who argues in disagreement or opposition to others. One of major of works of Lu Xun is the "Wild Grass" or "Ye Cao" which is a collection of prose poems which was written in 1924 and 1926. It is a pessimistic and gruesome set of poems that is a product of dreams including nightmares. A caption that would portray his seemingly negative attitude is read as follows: "As subterranean fire is spreading, raging underground. Once the molten lava beaks through the earth's crust, it will consume the wild grass and lofty trees, leaving nothing to decay. But I am not worried; I am glad. I shall laugh aloud and sing." (Wild Grass 1974) However, he is motivated to write in the hopes of enlightening his people, for humanity, and for the need to better it. It appeared from his writing that his aim is to expose the disease, or the unfortunates of the society, and draw attention to it so as it can be cured or corrected. Also evident is the mixing of literal and figurative truth; fantasy and reality; animate and inanimate objects. In effect the poems i n "Wild Grass" are a product of supernatural events and the dream, or the intentional framing of a piece of account as a dream, is strongly associated with the world of the individual subconscious. It is a place of strong emotional intensity inspiring of otherwise subdued or surrealist image and desires. This is depicted in the line, "If you sleep to a time when you lose track of time, your shadow may come and take his leave with these words: There is something I dislike in heave; I do not want to go there." (Wild Grass 1974) The effect is one of underscoring the inconsistency between the inner world and outer world, and of highlighting the complications of individual psychology. In several of these short passages, the dream now becomes a model of art, rearranging personal experiences into symbolic structures, aiming not as visualization of actual events, but rather an

Tariffs Used At Chittagong Port Economics Essay

Tariffs Used At Chittagong Port Economics Essay Chittagong Port is a principal port of Bangladesh and one of the emerging container ports of South Asian regions. At present, about 92% of import and export in volume are handled through this port and the growth of handling is ranging from 12% to 14% (CPA Year Book, 2008). This port is selected to present the current pricing system and to assess the demand and competition level and cost structure of this port. Further, this paper will try to provide recommendations to increase the attractiveness and the profit of the port by changing the current pricing system. Current pricing system: The present pricing system of this port is cost based. The Chittagong Port Authority (CPA) is a basic service provider and its objective focuses mainly on providing necessary services and facilities to the port users efficiently and effectively at competitive prices. The CPA has been following the cost based tariff system since 1987. To harmonize the objectives of CPA and port users the port introduced cost based tariff system in 1987 and had started collection of revenues on the basis of cost based tariff system since that year. Under cost based tariff, all variable, fixed, mixed, and step costs on a particular date were considered. There were also consideration of the growth rate of the cargo, container, and other activities for certain period. Total activities of CPA, to determine the tariff for a particular cargo or container or on any activity or movement, were divided into operational and non-operational (other service departments) departments. All variable and traceable costs relating to a particular department were directly assigned. Then all non-traceable cost and indirect costs were apportioned to all departments on some basis. After having a total costs for each department, all cost of non-operational departments re-apportioned to the operational departments on the basis of weights. Then total cost of a particular operational department was divided by certain number of activity or cargo or container to have a unit cost or tariff. Since the tariff is cost based and there is no provision for profit in the tariff, it was essential for the CPA to increase its efficiency in operation and effectiveness in use of assets so as to ensure early recovery of the fixed cost and reach the break-even- point. After break even point every amount of contribution margin has been considered as profit and considering that CPA redesigned its operational activity and flow of operation. CPA also made profit by handling more cargo, containers, and ships than the expected handling which meant CPAs operational growth rate was more than the required growth. As CPAs per unit operational cost was increased as per expectation, its contribution margin per unit was also remained in same level. Moreover, CPAs tariff is on foreign currency (US Dollar) basis which ha further increased CPAs income by devaluating of Bangladesh Taka. Cost Structure: The cost structure of the actual revenue and capital expenditure of CPA for the year 2007-2008 is presented in Table 1 and is shown in Annex-1. The Table 1 shows that actual operating and maintenance expense for the year 2007-08 was Taka 35,137.31 lac which includes a depreciation of Taka 8848.54 lac. Consequently, variable operating and maintenance cost was Taka 26,288.77 lac which is 29.53% of total cost. However, total fixed cost like depreciation and administrative staff salaries were Taka 10,773.64 lac which is 12.10% of the total cost. It is very alarming that financing cost and taxes were Taka 27,568.66 lac which was 30.97% of the total cost. CPA has to accept the proposal of the World Bank and ADB which have been offered through Bangladesh Government for various projects as CPA was not in a position to implement all of its development projects by using only its own fund. Therefore, CPA has to pay a huge amount of interest for those loans. Port competition level: The Chittagong Port is selected in this paper for assessing the intra port competition level and competition level within the region (inter port competition). Intra Port Competition level of Chittagong Port Authority (CPA): The Chittagong Port Authority is an autonomous and a service organization under the administrative control of the Ministry of Shipping of Bangladesh Government. According to the World Bank (2007), the port of Chittagong is a tool port where port authority owns, develops, and maintains the port infrastructure as well as the superstructure, including cargo handling equipment. CPA still has some entry barriers such as not to allow the foreign terminal operators in a tender process for operating a terminal or any investment in developing and operating a terminal of CPA due to labour unions objection and in monopolistic situation without any competition. Assessment of Inter-port competition level of CPA in Bangladesh: Chittagong Port Authority (CPA) and Mongla Port Authority (MPA) are two seaports of Bangladesh, which handled 32.72 million metric tons cargo (CPA Year Book, 2008 MPA website) during the fiscal year 2007-2008. Out of 32.72 million tons of total seaborne trade CPA handled 32.02 million tons and the rest is handled by MPA. The competition level of CPA with MPA can be assessed by analyzing location, yearly throughput and market share, market concentration, comparison of tariff including its hinterland facilities. To assess the market share only container traffic will be considered. Location: Chittagong Port is situated on the south eastern part of Bangladesh at a distance of about 9 nautical miles from the shore line of the Bay of Bengal. The maximum permissible LOA of vessel is 186 meters with the maximum permissible draught ranges from 8.50m to 9.20m (CPA Year Book, 2008). On the other hand, MPA is situated on the south western part of Bangladesh at a distance 71 nautical miles upstream from the Bay of Bengal and the permissible  maximum length of vessel is 225 m with the maximum 7m draught (MPA website). Throughput and Market share: The throughput, of the years 2004 to 2008, in TEUs and market share are presented in the Table 2 and is shown in Annex-2. From the Table 2, it is clear that the CPA is controlling the container market in Bangladesh without any competition. Market concentration: The Herfindhal index (H) is calculated to assess the container market concentration of two ports based on the years 2004 and 2008 in Table 3 and is shown in Annex-3. According to the Herfindhal index (H), if H = 1 or H = 0.5 or H = 1/n (n = number of firms), the concentration of market is monopoly or duopoly or equal in market shares respectively (Cariou, 2010). In the Table 3 the Herfindhal index (H), in both years, are almost close to 1 (one) which indicates that the container market is monopolistic. Comparison of tariff of both ports: The both ports, Chittagong and Mongla are autonomous and service organizations under the administrative control of the Ministry of Shipping. Both ports pricing system is cost based. The comparison of some costs related to container handling of both ports is presented in the Table 4 and is shown in annex-4. The Table 4 indicates that both the ports have same pricing structure for container handling and container vessels except the Lift on / Lift off charge on account of empty containers which is about 33.33% less in CPA compared to MPA. Hinterland market access: The Chittagong Port is connected with the hinterland by road, rail, air and river. The major containerized import and export commodity of Bangladesh is garments accessories and readymade garments respectively. The major factories of garments are located in Chittagong and Dhaka. The Export Processing Zones are located 3-4 kilometers away from Chittagong port. The most of the business activities including industrialization and foreign investment are oriented with the region of Dhaka and Chittagong of Bangladesh. The road distance from Chittagong port to Dhaka is around 245km. Mongla Port Authority (MPA) is situated on the south western part and serves the entire western part of Bangladesh. The road distance between MPA and Dhaka is can be around 185km, nearer to Dhaka compared to Chittagong Port. For many years, majority of all import and export cargo of MPA is moved by inland water way. Unavailability of railway connection and the road connection under present lay out remains unattractive for cargo transport from the port to Dhaka due to cost and time increases than going by road to Chittagong. The communication system of Chittagong Port through road, rail, and air is stronger than the Mongla port which indicates that Chittagong port is comparatively in competitive position than Mongla port in terms of hinterland access. Assessment of Inter-port competition level of CPA with Kolkata Port Trust (KOPT), India: Recent decision of the government of the Peoples Republic of Bangladesh to allow the transit of the cargo of northeastern states of India has increased the competition level of CPA with the KOPT. The competition level of CPA with KOPT is assessed by considering the geographical location, throughput, market share, market concentration, pricing structure, and hinterland market access. Geographical location: Chittagong port is strategically located in competitive location (Annex-5) for the seven northeastern states of India and these states currently depend on KOPT for export and import trade by passing comparatively long distance and incurring more cost. KOPT and CPA, both are regional sea ports of India and Bangladesh respectively. Due to geographical location and present decision of both countries for transit facilities CPA as regional hub will compete with KOPT. Throughput of CPA and KOPT: Average yearly growth and total throughput of the years 2004 to 2008 is presented in Table 5 for assessing the competition level of two ports and is shown in Annex-6. The Table 5 indicates that both ports between the years 2004 and 2008 had positive growth rate in container trade and the total average yearly growth is 22.27%. Market share of Chittagong port and Kolkata port: The market share of both ports are calculated and presented in the Table 6 and is shown in Annex-7. From the Table 6, it is clear that CPA has a lion share of container market. On the other hand, both ports have almost steady market share over the mentioned years. Market concentration: The level of container market concentration of both ports is calculated for the years 2004 and 2008 by using Herfindhal Index (H) and presented in Table 7 and is shown in Annex-8. The Table 7 shows that the Herfindhal Indices (H) is 0.58 and 0.59 for the years 2004 and 2008 respectively and close to 0.5. From this value it indicates that both the years the market was duopoly because of the different natural and political hinterland. Comparison of Tariff: The tariffs in some important particular fields related to container trade of both ports are presented in Table 8 and is shown in Annex-9. By comparing the tariff in some important particular fields of both Table 8 shows that except port dues and Lift on/Lift off charges for empty containers (20 and 40) other port charges are higher of CPA than KOPT. Hinterland connection: At present, the container trades of northeastern states of India depends on KOPT which is costly and time consuming as the port is situated far away from these states. Distance by road of northeastern states from Kolkata and Chittagong is presented in Table 9 and is shown in Annex-10. From the Table 9, it is evident that Chittagong port has competitive advantage in hinterland access over Kolkata port. Conclusion and recommendations: This paper aimed to present the current pricing system for Chittagong port and assesses the demand, competition level, and cost structure of the port. Firstly, it is observed that the pricing system of CPA is cost based and the port is mainly service oriented organization acting as a tool port. Secondly, it is observed that the container market is monopolistic in CPA due to absence of private operator. The inter port competition level of CPA with MPA also monopolistic and concentration of container market is in favour of CPA due to some bottlenecks of MPA. In addition, the competition level of CPA is assessed with nearby Indian port, KOPT. Here, duopolistic market concentration is observed as both ports, at present, are using different hinterland without international competition. However, the competition level of both ports will be increased in near future as Bangladesh and Indian governments have agreed for transit facilities for northeastern Indian states. In this case, it is furt her observed that due to strategic location of CPA the port has competitive advantage over KOPT. Furthermore, the comparison of tariff of both ports shows that in some particular important fields for container trade, the tariff of CPA is higher. From the above scenarios, it is evident that the degree of market concentration of CPA is monopolistic and current pricing system is controlled by regulations. However, according to UNCTAD (1995), in various parts of the world many ports are facing increased competition because of technological change in shipping, ports and land transport which may require a relaxation of government control on port charges. This report further mentioned that, competition has forced tariff levels to become more flexible. On the other hand, the CPA will not be able to hold its monopolistic situation as trade facilitation and competitive environment are increasing in the south-Asian region. Therefore, to increase the attractiveness and the profit of the port, it is recommended that the CPA has to revise its tariff by taking some infrastructural development for its natural hinterland access, competitive hinterland access as well as by increasing the efficiency of operational activities. In summary, cost based tariff can contribute to develop its attractiveness and its profit by the following ways: Rearranging operational activities to ensure efficient operation and economic use of operational assets. 2. Maintaining operational cost at a minimum level by reducing fixed cost and taking outsourcing benefit. 3. Achieving more growth in operation than required level of growth. For example: It was assumed that Total 3 million containers will be handled in 20 years with a growth rate 5% per year. On the other hand, CPA is now handling more than 1 million per year with 12% growth rate. So after 3 million, each amount of contribution margin (CM) is profit. Moreover, up to the recovery of 3 million, 7% of growth was also contribution margin, used to recover the fixed cost. 4. Devaluation of Bangladeshi taka against dollar will also help to increase profit in nominal term. Revising tariff time to time with present cost can be a more effective way to increase profit. Moreover, to increase the attractiveness and profit of the CPA, concession may be given on account of discharging or loading charges to importer/exporter who handles certain number of containers determined by port in single call of a vessel. Furthermore, it can provide rebates on vessels introducing green award discount like Port of Rotterdam Authority.

Essay --

There are a series of complex processes within the human body whose consequences is the wearing out of body cells and tissues and consequently their replacement is quite ideal. Body anatomy confirms that human body is made up of numerous cells that are organized into functional parts that work to achieve various life processes. As the processes in the body progress, there is synthesis of new cells that replace the worn out ones. The new cells need to be a replica or exact copies of the worn out cells with the same functional capacity and attributes. Otherwise, an abnormality occurs in the structure and physiology of the human body. In case malignant growths develop due to abnormality in the body cells, a condition known as cancer develops. Cancer basically can occur on any part of the body. The most common forms of cancer are lung cancer, breast cancer, prostate cancer, cervical cancer, cancer of the brain and colon cancer among others. Development of colon cancer begins when the process of the normal replacement of cells on the colon lining is interfered with which in most cases is due to faults in the process of mucosal cell division. As a result of this, the lining cells multiply gradually (for almost 10years) forming polyps which are pre-cancerous tumors. Further growth of the polyps generates mutations that facilitate subversion of the cells making them inexplicable. If not detected early, the pre-cancerous tumors may change course and attack other layers of the large intestine thus becoming cancerous (KEVIN, 2014). Precisely, colon cancer is a health condition in which malignant or cancerous cells develop in the tissues of the colon. Colon is actually a section of the digestive tract that helps in the absorption of waste and... ...ancer. A more advanced form of treatment of colon cancer is the use of radiations. This can be done in combination with chemotherapy for patients with colon cancer in the third stage. In the cases where the cancer has reached the fourth stage where the cells have reached adjacent organs like the liver, some treatments can be done to reach the liver. Some of them are ablation, directing the radiation to the liver, cryotherapy and liver surgery. PROGNOSIS Normally, there are higher chances of surviving if the cancer is detected prematurely. The question of certainty in survival depends on the stage at which the cancer is diagnosed. In most cases patients who have been diagnosed of colon cancer have high chances of surviving five years after the diagnosis (Network., 2012). Cancer at the first, second and third stages are essentially curable and the patients survive.

New Paradigms in the Study of the Civil War Essay

A civil war is a war between organized groups within the same nation state or republic, or, less commonly, between two countries created from a formerly united nation state. The aim of one side may be to take control of the country or a region, to achieve independence for a region, or to change government policies. Civil wars since the end of World War II have lasted on average just over four years, a dramatic rise from the one-and-a-half year average of the 1900-1944 period. While the rate of emergence of new civil wars has been relatively steady since the mid-19th century, the increasing length of those wars resulted in increasing numbers of wars ongoing at any one time. For example, there were no more than five civil wars underway simultaneously in the first half of the 20th century, while over 20 concurrent civil wars were occurring at the end of the Cold War, before a significant decrease as conflicts strongly associated with the superpower rivalry came to an end. Since 1945, civil wars have resulted in the deaths of over 25 million people, as well as the forced displacement of millions more. Civil wars have further resulted in economic collapse; Somalia, Burma, Uganda and Angola are examples of nations that were considered to have promising futures before being engulfed in civil wars. Formal classification James Fearon, a scholar of civil wars at Stanford University, defines a civil war as â€Å"a violent conflict within a country fought by organized groups that aim to take power at the center or in a region, or to change government policies†. The Correlates of War, a dataset widely used by scholars of conflict, classifies civil wars as having over 1000 war-related casualties per year of conflict. This rate is a small fraction of the millions killed in the Second Sudanese Civil War and Cambodian Civil War, for example, but excludes several highly publicized conflicts, such as The Troubles of Northern Ireland and the struggle of the African National Congress in Apartheid-era South Africa. That the Party in revolt against the de jure Government possesses an organized military force, an authority responsible for its acts, acting within a determinate territory and having the means of respecting and ensuring respect for the Convention. That the legal Government is obliged to have recourse to the regular military forces against insurgents organized as military and in possession of a part of the national territory. That the de jure Government has recognized the insurgents as belligerents; or That it has claimed for itself the rights of a belligerent; or That it has accorded the insurgents recognition as belligerents for the purposes only of the present Convention; or That the dispute has been admitted to the agenda of the Security Council or the General Assembly of the United Nations as being a threat to international peace, a breach of the peace, or an act of aggression. That the insurgents have an organization purporting to have the characteristics of a State. That the insurgent civil authority exercises de facto authority over the population within a determinate portion of the national territory. That the armed forces act under the direction of an organized authority and are prepared to observe the ordinary laws of war. That the insurgent civil authority agrees to be bound by the provisions of the Convention. Causes of civil war in the Collier-Hoeffler Model Scholars investigating the cause of civil war are attracted by two opposing theories, greed versus grievance. Roughly stated: are conflicts caused by who people are, whether that be defined in terms of ethnicity, religion or other social affiliation, or do conflicts begin because it is in the economic best interests of individuals and groups to start them? Scholarly analysis supports the conclusion that economic and structural factors are more important than those of identity in predicting occurrences of civil war. A comprehensive studies of civil war was carried out by a team from the World Bank in the early 21st century. The study framework, which came to be called the Collier-Hoeffler Model, examined 78 five-year increments when civil war occurred from 1960 to 1999, as well as 1,167 five-year increments of â€Å"no civil war† for comparison, and subjected the data set to regression analysis to see the effect of various factors. The factors that were shown to have a statistically significant effect on the chance that a civil war would occur in any given five-year period were: Availability of finance A high proportion of primary commodities in national exports significantly increases the risk of a conflict. A country at â€Å"peak danger†, with commodities comprising 32% of gross domestic product, has a 22% risk of falling into civil war in a given five-year period, while a country with no primary commodity exports has a 1% risk. When disaggregated, only petroleum and non-petroleum groupings showed different results: a country with relatively low levels of dependence on petroleum exports is at slightly less risk, while a high-level of dependence on oil as an export results in slightly more risk of a civil war than national dependence on another primary commodity. The authors of the study interpreted this as being the result of the ease by which primary commodities may be extorted or captured compared to other forms of wealth, for example, it is easy to capture and control the output of a gold mine or oil field compared to a sector of garment manufacturing or hospitality services. A second source of finance is national diasporas, which can fund rebellions and insurgencies from abroad. The study found that statistically switching the size of a country’s diaspora from the smallest found in the study to the largest resulted in a sixfold increase in the chance of a civil war. Low per capita income has been proposed as a cause for grievance, prompting armed rebellion. However, for this to be true, one would expect economic inequality to also be a significant factor in rebellions, which it is not. The study therefore concluded that the economic model of opportunity cost better explained the findings. Population size The various factors contributing to the risk of civil war rise increase with population size. The risk of a civil war rises approximately proportionately with the size of a country’s population. Gleditsch et al. did not find a relationship between ethnic groups with polygyny and increased frequency of civil wars but nations having legal polygamy may have more civil wars. They argued that misogyny is a better explanation than polygyny. They found that increased women’s rights were are associated with less civil wars and that legal polygamy had no effect after women’s rights were controlled for. Duration of civil wars Ann Hironaka, author of Neverending Wars, divides the modern history of civil wars into the pre-19th century, 19th century to early 20th century, and late 20th century. In 19th-century Europe, the length of civil wars fell significantly, largely due to the nature of the conflicts as battles for the power center of the state, the strength of centralized governments, and the normally quick and decisive intervention by other states to support the government. Following World War II the duration of civil wars grew past the norm of the pre-19th century, largely due to weakness of the many postcolonial states and the intervention by major powers on both sides of conflict. The most obvious commonality to civil wars are that they occur in fragile states. Civil wars in the 19th and early 20th centuries Civil wars through the 19th century to early 20th century tended to be short; the average length of a civil war between 1900 and 1944 was one and half years. The state itself was the obvious center of authority in the majority of cases, and the civil wars were thus fought for control of the state. This meant that whoever had control of the capital and the military could normally crush resistance. If a rebellion failed to quickly seize the capital and control of the military for itself, it was normally doomed to a quick destruction. For example, the fighting associated with the 1871 Paris Commune occurred almost entirely in Paris, and ended quickly once the military sided with the government. The power of non-state actors resulted in a lower value placed on sovereignty in the 18th and 19th centuries, which further reduced the number of civil wars. For example, the pirates of the Barbary Coast were recognized as de facto states because of their military power. The Barbary pirates thus had no need to rebel against the Ottoman Empire, who were their nominal state government, to gain recognition for their sovereignty. Conversely, states such as Virginia and Massachusetts in the United States of America did not have sovereign status, but had significant political and economic independence coupled with weak federal control, reducing the incentive to secede. The two major global ideologies, monarchism and democracy, led to several civil wars. However, a bi-polar world, divided between the two ideologies, did not develop, largely due the dominance of monarchists through most of the period. The monarchists would thus normally intervene in other countries to stop democratic movements taking control and forming democratic governments, which were seen by monarchists as being both dangerous and unpredictable. The Great Powers, defined in the 1815 Congress of Vienna as the United Kingdom, Habsburg Austria, Prussia, France, and Russia, would frequently coordinate interventions in other nations’ civil wars, nearly always on the side of the incumbent government. Given the military strength of the Great Powers, these interventions were nearly always decisive and quickly ended the civil wars. There were several exceptions from the general rule of quick civil wars during this period. The American Civil War was unusual for at least two reasons: it was fought around regional identities, rather than political ideologies, and it was ended through a war of attrition, rather than over a decisive battle over control of the capital, as was the norm. The Spanish Civil War was exceptional because both sides of the war received support from intervening great powers: Germany, Italy, and Portugal supported opposition leader Francisco Franco, while France and the Soviet Union supported the government . Civil wars since 1945 In the 1990s, about twenty civil wars were occurring concurrently during an average year, a rate about ten times the historical average since the 19th century. However, the rate of new civil wars had not increased appreciably; the drastic rise in the number of ongoing wars after World War II was a result of the tripling of the average duration of civil wars to over four years. This increase was a result of the increased number of states, the fragility of states formed after 1945, the decline in interstate war, and the Cold War rivalry. Following World War II, the major European powers divested themselves of their colonies at an increasing rate: the number of ex-colonial states jumped from about 30 to almost 120 after the war. The rate of state formation leveled off in the 1980s, at which point few colonies remained. More states also meant more states in which to have long civil wars. Hironaka statistically measures the impact of the increased number of ex-colonial states as increasing the post-WWII incidence of civil wars by +165% over the pre-1945 number. While the new ex-colonial states appeared to follow the blueprint of the idealized state – centralized government, territory enclosed by defined borders, and citizenry with defined rights -, as well as accessories such as a national flag, an anthem, a seat at the United Nations and an official economic policy, they were in actuality far weaker than the Western states they were modeled after. In Western states, the structure of governments closely matched states’ actual capabilities, which had been arduously developed over centuries. The development of strong administrative structures, in particular those related to extraction of taxes, is closely associated with the intense warfare between predatory European states in the 17th and 18th centuries, or in Charles Tilly’s famous formulation: â €Å"War made the state and the state made war†. For example, the formation of the modern states of Germany and Italy in the 19th century is closely associated with the wars of expansion and consolidation led by Prussia and Sardinia, respectively. Such states are considered â€Å"weak† or â€Å"fragile†. The â€Å"strong†-â€Å"weak† categorization is not the same as â€Å"Western†-â€Å"non-Western†, as some Latin American states like Argentina and Brazil and Middle Eastern states like Egypt and Israel are considered to have â€Å"strong† administrative structures and economic infrastructure. Historically, the international community would have targeted weak states for territorial absorption or colonial domination or, alternatively, such states would fragment into pieces small enough to be effectively administered and secured by a local power. However, international norms towards sovereignty changed in the wake of WWII in ways that support and maintain the existence of weak states. Weak states are given de jure sovereignty equal to that of other states, even when they do not have de facto sovereignty or control of their own territory, including the privileges of international diplomatic recognition and an equal vote in the United Nations. Further, the international community offers development aid to weak states, which helps maintain the facade of a functioning modern state by giving the appearance that the state is capable of fulfilling its implied responsibilities of control and order. The formation of a strong international law regime and norms against territorial aggression is strongly associated with the dramatic drop in the number of interstate wars, though it has also been attributed to the effect of the Cold War or to the changing nature of economic development. Consequently, military aggression that results in territorial annexation became increasingly likely to prompt international condemnation, diplomatic censure, a reduction in international aid or the introduction of economic sanction, or, as in the case of 1990 invasion of Kuwait by Iraq, international military intervention to reverse the territorial aggression. Similarly, the international community has largely refused to recognize secessionist regions, while keeping some secessionist self-declared states such as Taiwan in diplomatic recognition limbo. While there is not a large body of academic work examining the relationship, Hironaka’s statistical study found a correlation that suggests that every major international anti-secessionist declaration increased the number of ongoing civil wars by +10%, or a total +114% from 1945 to 1997. The diplomatic and legal protection given by the international community, as well as economic support to weak governments and discouragement of secession, thus had the unintended effect of encouraging civil wars. There has been an enormous amount of international intervention in civil wars since 1945 that served to extend wars. While intervention has been practiced since the international system has existed, its nature changed substantially. It became common for both the state and opposition group to receive foreign support, allowing wars to continue well past the point when domestic resources had been exhausted. Superpowers, such as the European great powers, had always felt no compunction in intervening in civil wars that affected their interests, while distant regional powers such as the United States could declare the interventionist Monroe Doctrine of 1821 for events in its Central American â€Å"backyard†. However, the large population of weak states after 1945 allowed intervention by former colonial powers, regional powers and neighboring states who themselves often had scarce resources. On average, a civil war with interstate intervention was 300% longer than those without. When disaggregated, a civil war with intervention on only one side is 156% longer, while intervention on both sides lengthens the average civil war by an addition 92%. If one of the intervening states was a superpower, a civil war is extended a further 72%; a conflict such as the Angolan Civil War, in which there is two-sided foreign intervention, including by a superpower, would be 538% longer on average than a civil war without any international intervention. Effect of the Cold War The Cold War provided a global network of material and ideological support that perpetuated civil wars, which were mainly fought in weak ex-colonial states, rather than the relatively strong states that were aligned with the Warsaw Pact and North Atlantic Treaty Organization. In some cases, superpowers would superimpose Cold War ideology onto local conflicts, while in others local actors using Cold War ideology would attract the attention of a superpower to obtain support. Using a separate statistical evaluation than used above for interventions, civil wars that included pro- or anti-communist forces lasted 141% longer than the average non-Cold War conflict, while a Cold War civil war that attracted superpower intervention resulted in wars typically lasting over three times as long as other civil wars. Conversely, the end of the Cold War marked by the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 resulted in a reduction in the duration of Cold War civil wars of 92% or, phrased another way, a roughly ten-fold increase in the rate of resolution of Cold War civil wars. Lengthy Cold War-associated civil conflicts that ground to a halt include the wars of Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua . See also The Logic of Violence in Civil War War of Independence Wars of national liberation References

The Return: Shadow Souls Chapter 13

The Demon Gate. Elena glanced over her shoulder at the backseat of the Prius. Bonnie was blinking sleepily. Meredith, who'd gotten much less sleep but heard much more alarming news, was looking like a razor blade: keen, sharp as ice, and ready. There was nothing else to see except Damon with his paper bags on the seat beside him, driving the Prius. Out the windows, where an arid Arizona dawn should be blinding its way across the horizon, was nothing but fog. It was frightening and disorienting. They had taken a small road off Highway 179 and, gradually, the fog had crept in, sending tendrils of mist around the car, and finally engulfing it whole. It seemed to Elena that they were being deliberately cut off from the old ordinary world of McDonald's and Target, and were crossing a border into a place they weren't meant to know about, much less go. There was no traffic in the other direction. None at all. And as hard as Elena peered out of her window, it was like trying to look through fast-moving clouds. â€Å"Aren't we going too fast?† Bonnie asked, rubbing her eyes. â€Å"No,† Damon said. â€Å"It would be – a remarkable coincidence – if anyone else were on the same route at the same time we are.† â€Å"It looks a lot like Arizona,† she said, disappointed. â€Å"It may be Arizona, for all I know,† Damon replied. â€Å"But we haven't crossed the Gate yet. And this isn't anywhere in Arizona you could just accidentally walk into. The path always has its little tricks and traps. The problem is that you never know what you'll be facing. â€Å"Now listen,† he added, looking at Elena with an expression she had gotten to know. It meant: I'm not joking around; I'm talking to you as an equal; I'm serious. â€Å"You've gotten very good at showing only a human-sized aura,† Damon said. â€Å"But that means that if you can learn one more thing before we go in, you can actually use your aura, make it do you some good when you want it to, instead of just hiding it until it pops up out of control and lifts three-thousand-pound cars.† â€Å"Like what kind of good?† â€Å"Like what I'm going to show you. First of all just relax and let me control it. Then, little by little, I'll slacken the controls and you'll take them up. By the end, you should be able to send your Powers to your eyes – and see much better; to your ears – and hear much better; to your limbs – and move much more quickly and precisely. All right?† â€Å"You couldn't have taught me this before we started on this little excursion?† He smiled at her, a wild, reckless smile that made her smile, too, even if she didn't know what it was about. â€Å"Until you showed how well you could control your aura throughout the path – the way here – I didn't think you were ready,† he said bluntly. â€Å"Now I do. There are things in your mind just waiting to be unlocked. You'll understand when we unlock them.† And we unlock them – with what? A kiss? Elena thought suspiciously. â€Å"No. No. And that's the other reason you've got to learn this. Your telepathy is getting out of hand. If you don't learn how to keep from projecting your thoughts, you'll never make it past the checkpoint at the Gate as a human.† Checkpoint. That sounded ominous. Elena nodded and said, â€Å"All right; what do we do?† â€Å"What we did before. Like I said, relax. Try to trust me.† He put his right hand just to the left of her breastbone, not touching the cloth of her deep gold top. Elena could feel herself flushing, and she wondered what Bonnie and Meredith must think of this if they were watching. And then Elena felt something else. It wasn't cold; it wasn't heat, but it was something like the furthest extremities of both of them. It was pure Power. It would have knocked her over if Damon hadn't been holding her by the arm with his other hand. She thought, he's using his own Power to prime mine, to do something – – something that hurt – No! Elena tried, vocally and telepathically, to tell Damon that the Power was too much, that it hurt. But Damon ignored her pleas even as he ignored the tears that spilled onto her cheeks. His Power was leading hers now, painfully, throughout her body. It was in her bloodstream, dragging her own Power behind it like a comet's tail. It was forcing her to take the Power to different parts of her body and let it build and build there, not letting her exhale it, not letting her move it on. I'm going to burst – All this time her eyes had been fixed on Damon's, broadcasting her feelings to him: from indignant anger to shock to agonized pain – and now†¦to†¦ Her mind exploded. The rest of her Power went on circling, without causing any pain. Each new breath she drew added more Power to it, but it simply circulated through her bloodstream, not increasing her aura, but increasing the Power that was inside her. After two or three more quick breaths she realized that she was doing it effortlessly. Now Elena's Power wasn't simply sliding around smoothly inside her, looking from the outside like any other human's. It was also filling several burst swollen nodes inside her and where it did that, it changed things. She realized that she was looking at Damon with round eyes. He might have told her about how this would feel, rather than letting her go into it blind. You really are a total bastard, aren't you? Elena thought, and, amazingly, she could feel Damon receive the thought, and could feel his automatic response, which was pleased agreement, rather than otherwise. Then Elena forgot about him in the dawning of a new understanding. She was realizing that she could keep circulating her Power inside her, and even build it higher and higher, getting ready for a truly explosive burst, and show nothing of what it was doing on the surface. And as for the nodes†¦ Elena looked around her at what a few minutes ago had been barren wilderness. It was like taking bullets of light through both her eyes. She was dazzled; she was enthralled. Colors seemed to come to life in a painful glory. She felt that she could see much farther than she ever had, on and on into the desert, and at the same time, she could distinguish Damon's pupils from his irises. Why, they're both black, but different shades of black, she thought. Of course, they go together – Damon would never have irises that didn't complement his pupils. But the irises are more velvety, where his pupils are more silky and shiny. And yet it's a velvet that can hold light inside it – almost like the night sky with stars – like those kitsune star balls that Meredith told me about. Right now those pupils were wide and set unyieldingly on her face, as if Damon didn't want to miss a moment of her reaction. Suddenly, the corner of his lip quirked in a faint smile. â€Å"You did it. You learned to channel your Power to your eyes.† He spoke in a bare whisper that she could never have detected before. â€Å"And to my ears,† she whispered back, listening to the amazing symphony of tiny sounds around her. High in the air, a bat squeaked on a frequency too high for any ordinary human ear to notice. As for the fall of grains of sand around her, they formed something like a tiny concerto as they struck rock and bounced with a tiny ping before falling to the ground below. This is amazing, she told Damon, hearing the smugness in her own telepathic voice. And I can talk to you this way any time now? She would have to watch out for that – telepathy threatened to reveal more than she might want to send to a recipient. It's best to be careful, Damon agreed, confirming her suspicions. She'd sent more than she'd meant to. But Damon – can Bonnie do this, too? Should I try to show her? â€Å"Who knows?† Damon replied aloud, making Elena wince. â€Å"Teaching humans how to use Power isn't exactly my forte.† And what about my different Wings Powers? Will I be able to control them, now? â€Å"About those I have absolutely no idea. I've never seen anything like them.† Damon looked thoughtful for a moment and then shook his head. â€Å"I think you'd need someone with more experience than I have to learn to control those.† Before Elena could say anything else, he added, â€Å"We'd better get back to the others. We're almost at the Gate.† â€Å"And I suppose I shouldn't be using telepathy then.† â€Å"Well, it is a rather obvious giveaway – â€Å" â€Å"But you'll teach me later, won't you? As much as you know about controlling Power?† â€Å"Maybe your boyfriend should be doing that,† Damon said almost roughly. He's afraid, Elena thought, trying to keep her thoughts hidden under a wall of white noise so that Damon wouldn't pick them up. He's just as afraid that he'll reveal too much to me as I am afraid of him.